Worries related to the Iran-Israel conflict, quarterly earnings and foreign investors' trading activity are the key factors that would dictate stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, trends in Brent crude oil and movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be crucial factors. This week will be crucial for the market amid ongoing worries about the conflict between Iran and Israel, said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The broader Nifty scaled its life-time (intra-day) high of 12,311.20, before ending 40.90 points, or 0.33 per cent, higher at 12,256.80. Other gainers included Ultratech Cement, Maruti, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints and HUL.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
'Calendar year 2023 is going to be big as pessimism takes a back seat.'
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
Private equity investments into domestic companies fell sharply year-on-year by 42 per cent to $23.3 billion in 2022, which is the lowest since 2019, when it was $15.8 billion, according to an industry report. The numbers reflect the overall funding winter that the startup space in particular, and the overall foreign investments in general have been witnessing since the Ukraine war began last February. Private equity investment inflows into the country fell by a sharp 42 per cent in 2022 from last year to $23.3 billion -- the lowest annual inflows since 2019 when it was a low $15.8 billion, but still relatively elevated compared to historical levels, said Elaine Tan, a senior analyst at Refinitiv, the LSEG business arm that provides financial markets data and insights.
From the 30-share pack, Indusind Bank, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest drags, tumbling up to 7.63 per cent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday during which he reiterated India's long-standing position on the Ukraine situation, favouring dialogue and diplomacy.
Crowd roar as Xi opens Hangzhou Asian Games
The G20 foreign ministers' meeting on Thursday was unable to come out with a joint communique due to sharp differences over the Ukraine conflict despite persistent efforts by host India to build consensus.
'Given China's past behaviour and their territorial claims, should we be sceptical regarding China's willingness to adhere to these agreements fully? The answer is yes.' 'As Ronald Reagan famously said in the context of the SALT talks, 'Trust, but verify!' India should also do the same.' 'This has already begun with foot patrolling, drones, satellite imagery and so on. India's military deployment did mirror China's and will continue to do so in the future.'
Gross collection of tax on corporate and individual earnings jumped nearly 24 per cent so far in the current fiscal year that started on April 1, the tax department said on Sunday. The gross collection of taxes on corporate earnings rose 16.74 per cent during April 1 to October 8, while personal income tax collection jumped 32.30 per cent, the tax department said in a statement. Direct tax collection came at Rs 8.98 lakh crore between April 1 to October 8, 2022, 23.8 per cent higher than the gross collection in the corresponding period a year ago.
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a pitch for electing a strong and stable government in an uncertain world beset by geopolitical tensions as the Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday released its manifesto, prioritising development and welfare while shunning populist measures and contentious issues like the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
Pressure is mounting for a resolution to be moved in the assembly when it meets next week for its maiden sitting to demand 'restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A' as committed in the National Conference's election manifesto, reveals Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
For the initial public offering (IPO) of the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), the Centre has shortlisted 50-60 anchor investors, which include BlackRock, Sands Capital, Fidelity Investments, Standard Life, and JP Morgan, and will soon finalise its anchor book. The feedback from anchor investors has led to price discovery in LIC shares, valuing India's largest insurer at around Rs 7 trillion, said an official aware of the development. The "attractive valuation" is seen widening the investor base by providing an opportunity to more of them to participate in the IPO, the official added.
Government's focus on infrastructure is the biggest positive for the Indian economy, followed by the improvement in tax collections and good consumption recovery.
Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
Exports declined for the fourth-consecutive month by 10.3 per cent year-on-year to $34.98 billion in May, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $22.12 billion. According to the data released by the commerce ministry on Thursday, key export sectors recording negative growth include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, ready-made garments of all textiles and chemicals. Imports also declined 6.6 per cent, six-month in a row, to $57.1 billion against $61.13 billion in the same month last year, the data showed.
Housing sales hit an all-time high this year to nearly 3.65 lakh units across seven major cities, beating the previous high of 2014, on strong demand for residential properties despite a hike in mortgage rates, according to Anarock. The prices of residential properties have risen in the range of 4-7 per cent primarily due to an increase in the input costs and demand comeback post-COVID, it said. Releasing the demand-supply data of India's top residential primary (fresh sale) markets, property consultant Anarock said that the housing sales rose 54 per cent this year to 364,900 units as against 236,500 units in 2021 across the seven cities -- Delhi-NCR, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Pune.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
India's exports entered negative territory after a gap of about two years, declining sharply by 16.65 per cent to $29.78 billion in October, mainly due to global demand slowdown, even as trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday. Key export sectors, including gems and jewellery, engineering, petroleum products, ready-made garments of all textiles, chemicals, pharma, marine products, and leather, recorded negative growth during October. Imports during the month under review rose by about 6 per cent to $56.69 billion on account of increase in the inbound shipments of crude oil and certain raw materials such as cotton, fertiliser and machinery.
Investments by private equity and venture capital funds (PE/VC) declined by 22 per cent in March to $4.6 billion spread across 107 deals, a report said on Wednesday. The deal activity showed an increase of 54 per cent by value at $15.5 billion across 360 deals, largely on the back of heightened activity in the startup space, the monthly report by IVCA and EY said. "While India's position as an attractive destination for PE/VC investments is expected to remain strong in 2022 given its high growth and macroeconomic and policy stability, the continuing geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, quantitative tightening by the US FED and inversion in the US yield curve are potential downside risks, making investors circumspect," Partner at EY Vivek Soni said.
India's merchandise exports dipped marginally in March to $41.69 billion, and by 3.11 per cent during the last fiscal year to $437.06 billion mainly due to continued geopolitical turmoil, and depressed global trade. Imports, too, declined in March as well during the entire 2023-24. Trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, narrowed 17.74 per cent in March to $15.6 billion and came down 9.33 per cent to $240.17 billion in FY24.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday described cryptocurrencies as "clear danger" and said that anything that derives value based on make believe, without any underlying, is just speculation under a sophisticated name. The government is in the process of finalising a consultation paper on cryptocurrencies after gathering inputs from various stakeholders and institutions. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been flagging concerns about cryptocurrencies, which are seen as a highly speculative asset.
Dalal Street investors became richer by more than Rs 16.36 lakh crore this year as the equity market scaled new highs despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties and inflation worries. Analysts attributed better macroeconomic fundamentals, the confidence of retail investors and foreign investors investing again in the domestic equities towards the latter half of 2022 as the key factors that led to the outperformance of the Indian market in comparison to many other stock markets worldwide. During the initial part of the year, markets were jolted by the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the Sensex chart, losses were mainly driven by Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Maruti and SBI -- falling as much as 6.19 per cent.
'Limited spillovers' to Asia's third-largest economy, even as world 'perilously close' to recession.
'Trump's disregard for norms and institutions could prove very costly for America's social fabric.'
The statement said that the global economy is being held back by a shortfall in demand, while addressing supply constraints is key to lifting potential growth.
Notwithstanding expectations of a pick-up in construction activity during a seasonally strong January-March quarter (fourth quarter) of 2022-23 (FY23), analysts are cautiously optimistic about the building material sector - encompassing paints, pipes, wood panels, tiles, metals, and cement - as volatile input costs, coupled with fears of a global slowdown, are making demand projections uncertain. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors stay selective and pick stocks of companies with stronger brand recall, expanding distribution network, diversified product profile, healthier balance sheet, and sustainable cash flow. "The government's various proposals under Budget 2023-24 (FY24) may lead to the building material segment growing between 8 per cent and 12 per cent for the next five years.
'The idea is to invest where there is opportunity.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday expressed hope that G20 will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy and work towards bringing back stability, confidence and growth on the global landscape.
Geopolitical tensions simmered at the US Open on Thursday as Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk refused the customary handshake at the net when Belarusian Victoria Azarenka defeated her 6-2, 6-3 in the second round.
Deepening the funding crisis that startups have been witnessing for some time, the October inflows plunged 75 per cent on-year to $3.3 billion across 75 deals, including six large deals worth $2.2 billion, according to an industry report. Exits touched half of the inflows at $1.6 billion across 15 deals in the reporting months, a significant improvement over the previous month which saw just $653 million worth of exits across 24 deals, but 69 per cent lower on-year basis, according to the numbers collated by EY for the Indian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, the umbrella body the PEs and VCs. However, the report said, on a month-on-month basis, the inflows continued to grow, clipping at 60 per cent over the September numbers.
